In this article, just published in West European Politics, Daniel Bochsler and Miriam Hänni ask who benefits from the retrospective vote. They find that a poor economy benefits the established opposition parties, whereas corruption benefits new parties.
"Who benefits from the retrospective vote? Bringing in new parties", forthcoming in West European Politics: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2022.2145743
